The renminbi "staying in place" is more stable and stable
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The renminbi "staying in place" is more stable and stable
â–¡ reporter Wang Hui
After the sharp increase in the previous day, on the 25th, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar fell by 160 basis points. At the same time, the volatility of the spot exchange rate of the renminbi against the US dollar was less than 0.1%. Analysts said that the further downside of the US dollar index is expected to be limited in the short term. Under the background of the continued shrinking of the exchange rate flexibility of the RMB against the US dollar, it is still difficult to break the fabric of neutral holdings.
Volatility continues to converge
On the 25th, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar in the inter-bank foreign exchange market was lowered by 160 basis points to 6.8833 yuan.
On the 25th, the exchange rate fluctuation of the RMB against the US dollar market is still very limited. As of 16:30 on the 25th, the on-the-counter RMB-to-dollar spot inquiry transaction closed at 6.8863 yuan, up only 1 basis point from the previous closing price, and the overall price continued to fluctuate within a narrow range from 6.87 to 6.89 since April 13. Running characteristics. The data shows that on the 25th, the spot exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar was as low as 0.06% throughout the day, and the volatility was further narrowed, indicating that the market supply and demand forces tend to be balanced. The expectations of the RMB exchange rate for the short-term stability are more consistent.
In terms of offshore exchange rate, the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar CNH in the Hong Kong market on the 25th was also very flat during the Asian trading hours. As of 16:30 Beijing time on the 25th, the RMB CNH exchange rate reported 6.8867 yuan, a slight decrease of 29 basis points or 0.04% compared with the previous closing price, and the amplitude during this period was only 0.08%. In addition, the offshore RMB exchange rate and the onshore exchange rate continue to operate close to each other, and the spread is narrow. In addition, in the overseas non-deliverable forward foreign exchange (NDF) market, the one-year NDF of the RMB against the US dollar was generally around the 7.07 first-line trading, which was not much changed compared with the previous closing price.
Narrow range fluctuations are difficult to change
Analysts said that the recent trend of the RMB exchange rate shows that the market tends to agree on the short-term stability of the RMB exchange rate. Whether it is a sharp increase in the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar on the 24th, or a sharp drop in the middle price on the 25th, it has not caused too much shock in the market, which largely indicates that the supply and demand of the RMB exchange rate in the short term tends to be balanced.
Forex trader Futuo analyst Zhong Yue said that the French election news is still unclear, and there is not enough reason to support the euro to continue to rise sharply. In addition, Trump's accelerated introduction of tax reform programs, infrastructure projects and other stimulus policies may benefit the performance of the US dollar. Most of the major non-US currencies have limited room for the US dollar exchange rate to continue to strengthen.
HY Markets further pointed out that from the data of foreign exchange settlement and sales, the supply and demand of the foreign exchange market in the first quarter of 2017 tends to be balanced. The SAFE believes that the marginal effect of the Fed's interest rate hike is weakened, and that the domestic fundamentals are more stable, so it is able to cope with the Fed's interest rate hike and contraction. On the whole, the expectation of RMB depreciation is expected to continue to decline. The RMB will fluctuate with the US dollar index in both directions throughout the year, and the depreciation pressure is less than 2016.
Based on a combination of relevant factors, analysts said that the volatility of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar will remain at a low level in the short term, and the exchange rate will remain stable. Whether the future trend of the RMB exchange rate can break the sideways may be subject to changes in domestic economic and monetary policies.
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